The Advisor Weblog

What would you like?

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:23:11 +0000

One of all the New Year promises I made this year, is to renew this blog, and take it a couple of steps further: keeping actual posting, plus adding more info, more analysis, or more wahtever you like! So, if you have a minute please add a comment about whatever you will like to see here. I will keep my new year promise, and as long is permitted I will kept you more updated day after day!

Gbp/Usd in the short term

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:04:41 +0000

Not the clearer pair for me at this time, to be honest. I see the pair slightly bullish, as long as the 20 SMA (red in the charts) holds the downside price. This pair usually respects pretty well that simple MA, and you can see it curved to the upside, so actual zone, @ 1.4560/70 will be the first support to consider in the short term, followed by the ascendant trend line you can see in this chart, @ 1.4515. A break under, will turn the pair bearish for the rest of the day, with next supports at 1.4486, 1.4448 and finally the zone @ 1.4410. Above 1.4490 the pair could regain the bullish momentum first to 1.4550, the zone @ 1.4580 and then to 1.4630.

Usd/Chf update

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 12:00:27 +0000

Following yesterday’s analysis, the pair has started above the 38.2% mentioned, and is tending to the 1.1280, first tough resistance from actual price, above which, 1.1320 will be the next zone to consider in intraday trading, followed by 1.1370. Due to the overbought state of the pair, we could see some bearish corrections, with supports at 1.1195, 1.1126 and finally the zone @ 1.1070.

Eur/Usd preparing to continue down

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:57:36 +0000

If you wonder how much do technicals work, see how the 200 EMA was respected yesterday by the pair, till finally get broken in the last 4 hours candle (as I always said, no support or resistance, not matter if static or dynamic, will hold for ever) and also the base of the channel is being vulnerate right now (we need a new candle opening under to confirmate the break down) so we could consider 1.3352 to be first support for today, followed by the zone @ 1.3305, and finally 1.3256. Also see the pair is under the 61.8% of the last upleg, so chances to the downside remain strong at the moment. Regarding resistances, above 1.3430 the pair could recover some ground targeting the 1.3500 zone as a first key level.

Majors’s sentiment for today

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:27:48 +0000

Here is the majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Valeria Bednarik — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:46:21 +0000

Hello everybody, hope you are fine! Optimism is still shinning above the dollar that continues posting gains against most rivals, particularly against Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc; seems investors are convinced that Barack Obama plan to pull the U.S. out of recession will work. Besides, huge moves of December where meant to correct from a technical perspective, and here we are: some key levels have been attacked, others remain intact. Let’s see if today we could see more of that levels that could define where majors could be heading. Gbp however, is not following the crowd and remains slightly bullish at the moment: after declines of more than a 20% against major rivals during 2008 and the aggressiveinterest rate cuts, the U.K. economy looks in better shape to recover, but won’t be easy to see just Gbp moving against the tie; let’s see what will happen there. Today we have quite important fundamentals in the U.S. related to production and housing sector, none of which is expected positive: will the trend win the battle again? While you check today’s calendar I will start preparing major’s perspective for today, here is the link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Usd/Chf in the longer term: turn around?

Valeria Bednarik — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:13:11 +0000

The Usd/Chf seems quite vulnerable at the time: despite testing the1.0380 zone, the pair was unable to confirm under the weekly ascendant trend line, and is starting a new up leg. Today the upside run has been halted by the 38.2% of the last fall, as you can see in the following chart. The pair must break above the 1.1090/1.1120 zone, to continue in this direction: most important resistances from there will be at 1.1200, 1.1280 the zone around 1.1370, 1.1425 and finally 1.1520, 61.8% of the mentioned rally. On the other hand, under the 1.0900 zone the bullish vision will be denied and the Swiss could recover strength, targeting 1.0810, 1.0736, 1.0615 and then 1,0550.

Usd/Jpy close to key level

Valeria Bednarik — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 12:33:50 +0000

Japanese yen has fall pretty well also, taking this pair close to the key level 93.80. Pushing higher, 4 hours charts are pointing to that zone, followed by a more strong level at 94.25. Above that zone I see the pair confirming a bullish continuation with next resistance at 94.80 zone. Regarding supports, 93.10 will be the first zone to consider, followed by 92.50/60 zone, and finally 92.20.

Eur/Usd for today

Valeria Bednarik — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 12:00:41 +0000

The Eur/Usd has fall pretty well since the beginning of European session, breaking daily minimum right now, and in 4 hours charts indicators are pointing for a continuation after opening under the 50% of the last daily up leg:despite the oversold state in smaller charts, the pair seems ready to continue, with next supports at 1.3515, a small stop @ 1.3560, but addressing to 1.3520 zone where we have the 200 EMA and the base of a descendant channel. you can see in this chart. Regarding resistances, above 1.3680 we could see some recovery, first to 1.3710, followed by 1.3768 and then the zone @ 1.3820.

Majors’ s sentiment for today

Valeria Bednarik — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 10:16:52 +0000

Here is the majors sentiment for today:Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Neutral

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish