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We have a sad announcement to make today: After two years reading Tony Juste’s blog and following his market advice, we have to put the advisor’s blog on hold since Tony Juste's relationship with FXstreet.com has terminated.
To know more about this, read Francesc Riverola’s post on his weblog.

But it’s not a good-bye… We want to continue covering the markets live and we want to do it from this weblog. As a Forex information website we really believe this is the right place to offer that kind of coverage and we want to give the opportunity to other Forex Traders to do what Tony did.

Therefore we open FXstreet.com doors to anybody keen to update this blog with live market posts. This is our next challenge and very soon we will start a selection process to find the new (or the news) FXstreet.com advisors. Stay tuned!

FXstreet.com Staff

Almost Done! (announcement)

Hi everyone, how are you doing? I myself am already feeling the smell of the new country in my brain! And I have to tell you that I'll be there by next Tuesday, April 15th, God willing. You cannot imagine the amount of work under my back these days...and how much still is left to be done! Anyway, I think I am realistic if I say that it is jsut a matter of days that the Daily market coverage goes back on track.

Speaking of markets, nice reversal in EUR/USD today, where a double top is more and more clear every passing day. Some say we are forming a triangle (base around 1.5680-50) before 1.62-65 prints, and I have to disagree, but since I've been disagreeing for a while now with no luck, I'll sit tight, but sticking to my words of a lower Euro. A solid trnedline is coming in @ 1.5340, i.e., the 38.2% Fibo of the last upleg, and it looks like a real possibility to seeing tested again. I'll hold onto shorts as the stop hunting looks over for now, and they were not even able to go past 1.5950, not much oxygen is left on the upside, and would not like to be caught wrong-footed if the reversal finally takes place in a fast mode.

Apart from EUR/USD, USD/CHF longs are still opena s they look as good as they could be. Very good base in the pair, 1.05 still eyed, a nice pair to be in these days in the long side. And the last one I have a real interest is EUR/GBP, where the last bullet ahs been taken @ 0.8002 out of a limit order (effective entry 0.7948), and as I said, this one goes for the m/t with no problem of the short term spikes, but having seen the reaction off 0.80, maybe there is now more intention than before to sell the EUR aggressively and keep a range in place for a good period of time. I would not like to be long EUR or short USD at this point,a t least technically speaking.

Alright, I'll leave it here for now, but we'll meet again very soon, me from a different place. Best wishes. Bye 4 now.

It's NFP time!

Hi everyone, hope you are fine. Well, it's NFP time (make sure you attend Wayne's Webinar today @ FXstreet.com for a complete coverage of the market reaction and whatever technical developments occur after the release of the employment data in the USA), and that means volatility. I have a feeling it oculd go our direction if it just comes around expectations, no doubt of that is the reading is better. I have just re-entered EUR/USD short at the price I could this morning again (1.5731), having enjoyed a good move yesterday to the low 1.55's (pips keep on coming).

As for EUR/GBP, non-commercial paper keeps being sold, for a total (according to my source) now of over 100Bln having been sold this week, developments here should not last long.

On my own front, I'll bring in some news for you next week, things seem to be moving faster now...

Keep in touch! Have a great trading everyone. Bye 4 now.

Market rumour in EUR/GBP

Was told yesterday that a huge non-commercial volume was sold yesterday in EUR/GBP. My source told me more than 15Bln of non-commercial (i.e., the ones that make money) paper entered this market short. Obiovusly, they will not make the full move in a day, but I believe it is a good extra confirmation of the current technicalo picture. And the move is just around the corner...

The move is here...

Hello everyone! Hope you are fine. How is trading going? I wish it is going better than my move, which is still in slow motion, progress being made not yet what I would call 'significant' but hopefully this will improve over the next days as there are several topics that should be completed in the meantime which would make things easier.

Marketwise, double top in EUR/USD and perfect 1-2-3 in USD/CHF is what we have, with EUR/GBP not going bad either. It is obvious that the majority of the people still think this is nothing more than a mere pullback, and am glad to hear that. As I said in the previous post, the move in the USD reminds me of that in the CHF and JPY last year, and the nice things are still to come.

EUR/USD has triggered a major double top, with 1.5340 (38.2% Fibo of the last move) being the neckline, targeting 1.47 (passing 61.8% 1.4970, which was the original target), with some real good odds to print. I'd be sad if those friends of this weblog who went thru a tough time in the previous USD insane moves were not able to join this good party. After all the tricky moves, it looks a much better scenario now, and certainloy this is not the time to look at what happened before, it is payback time.

USD/CHF is the perfect move of the day and week, and I only wish you are in long. Yesterday's fast and fake downside move went to hit (perfectly) the 61.8% retracement of the previous upleg from 0.9650, situated @ 0.9875, coinciding with the intraday extreme OS level. From there, the unit went up non-stop, breaking the intraday downtrend line and rallying through past the parity level again. If you look at the daily chart, that previous upleg 1.02 high is now the clear neckline of a 1-2-3 pattern, which if broken, targets 1.07-1.08. I said this pair was my favourite, and will keep on saying so for a looong time now. I am holding it myself and will not close it for now, payback time is here.

EUR/GBP is another sweet piece of cake these days. The unit filled me in on my last entry @ 0.7950 (hiting a dynamic resistance line, thus making the last entry an excellent risk/reward opportunity), and is today confirming the daily MACD divergence, and much more. I keep on aiming @ 0.76, and am enjoying today's move, looking for much more to come.

In short, the market has now many where it wanted: think that the USD is a trash currency that can't make it back. No problem, as you know this is a zero-sum game, and those believing in that will surely be the ones who pay traders like me who are in the other side now, and who probably paid them first in the previous madness. The only question is who's gonna pay more here... and I think it's gonna be them...

Be good, take care, and please, let's keep in touch. Things on my end are moving, rather slow, but keep on moving them, so will be in touch with you soon, miss you too. Thanks for the e-mails of support, don't have the time to answer them, but have them with me. Bye 4 now.

Back into EUR/USD...

Hi everyone!

How's it going? Well, not quite the 'comeback' I was expecting from the USD, but so far no real danger (yet). I have put myself back short in this pair and 1.5826 was a too tempting level for me. Putting a m/t stop above 1.6175 and targeting again that 1.51-1.49 region. More and more this moves reminds me of those seen in EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF last year, when it looked like they would never go back down again, but take a look at them now. And so I believe will happen in the Euro.

Having 2 similar positions open (long USD/CHF -effective entry cost 0.9937- and short EUR/USD) is a bit of a problem, but I want to be in the move and am ready to pay for it if needed.

EUR/GBP gave 0.79 again and needless to say that was an exceptional opportunity for the trip back to 0.76 (hopefully), anyway current levels are also very good. Finally AUD/USD hit the mid 0.92's again but decided to take the Euro instead this time, although I have to say that the Aussie is a good short again.

Alright my dear frinds, gotta run again, be back very shortly, things keep moving but they go at a so slooooooooow pace you can't imagine... Leave your message and let's keep ourselves in touch. If I say I miss you I guess am quite close to reality. The last words for Marcus, a special friend to whom I want to send my best wishes from here, we'll talk soon. Bye 4 now!

USD has bottomed out... get ready for the take-off

USD/CHF: 1.0385 is the least target

If the CCI doesn't screw it up this time, just by looking at the chart below you'll agree with me taht this pair has real potential. Alright, I admit it, I've been saying the same for a while and so far nothing has shown up. But that does not mean I will change my view on it, and when things turn, we better be there. And things have turned, so am providing you with the Swissy and Euro daily charts to take a look at and see if you agree with that. There is a steep dynamic resistance around 1.0170 that could support the CCI's bearish hidden divergence, but I believe that the 38.2% is on its way, that's what I am looking for.

EUR/USD: 1.5340 right away, 1.50 next

The 38.2% Fibo 1.5345 is right on target, with 1.5174 50% and more important 1.5001 61.8% to come up next. Watch the daily chart below for an amazing work by the extreme OB levels and also the dynamic Fibo fan lines and a former uptrend line (steep) that acted as a good dynamic resistance line (something the 'media' did not take into account when they started all this hype with the USD collapse...). The bottom here in the USD looks even more evident, with 38.2% a target for Monday and the other Fibos on their way in the short term. Watch MACD and CCI do their work as well here. Nice technical work, not the time to lose track of the USD progress after all the difficult times we've been into, it's time for payback.

EUR/GBP: Another excellent pick in my own judgement

Take a look at this daily chart. Please note once again the brilliant work by the extreme levels on a daily basis (technicals worked definitely fine here), helped by the Fibo Fan line dynamic resistance line and the 2 uptrend channels + projected lines (ranges), which have finally make themselkves be felt in the chart. Now watch the MACD. Failed first trigger, now going for it for the second time. This time it will be confirmed. ANd the target should be at least the first failed trigger or  0.7550, with pink and yellow lines being m/t targets. Taking into account this trade is a 'carry trade' (lol), you may want to hold it longer for the yellow line. This one looks good to me.

One final thing: the JPY cows look really weak at this point, consider upticks as great short levels from here. I believe EUR will be dragged down by the crosses as well, maybe things are turning for good after the hysteria and all the hype on it, so stay tunned.

We keep in touch. Enjoy a happy trading. Take care. Bye 4 now.

I just forgot...

Here's a brief update in case you were wondering how my move to Switzerland is going. Well, I have to say that at this point we don't have a place to stay yet, we are awaiting for confirmation from the places we'd like to live, but things are tougher than I had thought at first. We have very clear the place where we want to stay, but depend on several things to be confirmed before we actually make the mvoe. Anyway, I'll keep you posted on how this goes...

PS: Many thanks for the words of support I've been receiving in my inbox. We keep in touch!

Happy Easter! (& more...)

My dear friends of this Weblog, how have you been? First of all, let me wish a Happy Easter to those of you weho celebrate it.

The market got explosive during my absence, and I could not escape from knowing what was going on, as the Swiss media was day after day talking of the progress made by the CHF vs the USD amid a global USD collapse (they said), which included new lows vs EUR and long-term lows vs JPY. That obviously made my Swissy longs to be stopped out, but that was just one part of the story.

I mean, if you take out the hype and the really big noise from the media, you'll realize that apart from the USD/CHF (Swissy), the other pairs have behaved very technically. Yes, EUR/USD included. I will come up with charts during this long weekend so you can judge for yourselves. And if there is anyone here who was using the daily extreme bands, he/she may understand what am saying. Just scrap the Swissy from the list (so far the wors technical behaver, but things have NOT finished yet), and the results vary a lot.

Of course, there'll be those who will again say that the $ is done (I've even read it in places I thought t be 'professional'), but how you construct that? With the USD/CHF plunge? Is it a crime if the CHF has more value than the USD? Oh, I see... it may be because of the EUR rising to 1.59? Alright, have you checked the value of the GBP? So what's the problem here? As always, the 'problem' is the noise generated around a particular move, especially if such move occurs almost in a vertical fashion, as it was the case. But again, from a technical point of view, you'll see in the charts I'll come up with that there was nothing even close to 'aberration' (forget the Swissy for now, he'll be fine soon, but not yet).

Has anyone checked the USD outside the 'mentally-illned' Europeans or JPY? GBP/USD hit a high of 2.03 and plunged to current 1.98, so not a big deal of price action there. And what about the Pacifics? HAve you taken the time to check AUD/USD or NZD/USD? The former (which made me even end up positive despite the Swissy's loss) is below 0.90 from 0.94, so where's the USD collapse? Wouldn't it be better to say we have seen A GLOBAL CARRY MADNESS COLLAPSE which has set up the pace for a much bigger decline? What do you have to say to GBP/JPY hitting the projected target of the huge H&S @ 196 after having been around 215 just a couple of months ago? Again, if you just watched EUR/USD, then you could be pissed because of the vertical move that only ended up @ 1.59 (daily extreme Ob level test that has caused a 500-pip decline in 2 days, is that a bad technical move?...), but woverall I think there is something much bigger going on than just a mere USD collapse. And, oh, I forgot to say, I have not abandoned the idea of a stronger USD -at least a bottoming USD-, no matter what happened in the previous week. I still believe the Swissy and Euro have to balance themselves, but of course in the meantime the AUD/USD paid off for a decent amount of pips, so that's not a pair to choose now to go long the USD; the opporunity was lost here if one did not take it before.

I myself have a real interest now in EUR/GBP. The 0.79 hit (daily extreme OB level, once again working wonders -if you only would scrap USD/CHF, you'd realize that) looks like a real top in the mid or even long term. Daily indicators support it and I like the trade (as much as I liked AUD/USD or let's say I still like the Swissy at present), for 2-3 hundreds of a downleg. In the Swissy case, the nearest reference level is the projected line of the downtrend channel that was broken @ 1.05 and led to the 700 pip sell-off and that is now coming in around 1.0400-50.

Alright, I'll come up with charts to show you what I missed (a pity!) in real-time, and see if we can make something out of them. I hope you are enjoying a good trading in these turbulent (MEDIAwise ONLY!) times. Try to avoid noise (CNBC, FT, etc.) and just read the candles that are forming day after day, that'll be your best friend to profit in this environment. Best wishes to you all. Bye 4 now.

Top Picks

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Just taking some time off my duties this morning to give a quick update on what my favourite picks for the next days are, although that may be something you already know. In short:

EUR/USD - good Short for a trip back to old highs
USD/CHF - Strong Long (today it hit sub 1.02 levels again, cheap level)
EUR/GBP - very good Short (today's 0.7635 high was another gift), daily trigger CONFIRMED
AUD/USD - strong Short (unit hit 0.9310 today, great level)
GBP/CHF - good Long daily picture improving, trigger (long) almost confirmed
USD/JPY - good Long around 102

In short, I hold the same view on the USD side (with USD/CHF, AUD/USD being the best options in my opinion), and have confiramtion in the crosses, which makes of this situation a 'ready to go' one. I think we've reached a turning point and there are many pairs that can help us from here.

Alright, gotta run for now, I hope you keep these 6 pairs among your favourites for now, and wish they yield as they should so you can enjoy some big pips in the pocket. Till the next update, Bye 4 now.

At the Close. KEEP it UP! (Bye 4 now!)

Alright my good friends, this is the time to call for a break in our (great) relationship. I, from now on, will be taking care of all the matters regarding my establishment in Switzerland, and so I'll be off for a while. Of course, we'll meet again very soon, and I'll try my best to keep posting some updates if I have the opportunity to tackle the markets these days. I would like to thank all of you who e-mailed or phoned me to wish all the best in this new life in Switzerland, I can only say that you are an important part of my 'online FX' family, and that it is my desire that we'll keep moving along together real soon, when am all set up in the new place of residence. This blog has become a great community, and it will continue to be either am in Rome, Barcelona or Zurich, because what really matters is that we both meet at the other end of the screen. Thank you.

OK, let me speak also a little bit on the markets. Today's move reminds me (and if you compare them there are lots of similarities) of that seen during the February-March carry madness in 2007, where, at one point, and also on a Friday, the market turned for a moment with big spikes in the opposite direction, but then during the next week it went for new highs before collapsing for good. I'm not saying we'll see an exact repetition of what happened during taht period, but of course, today's moves should raise a RED FLAG to those who want the USD dead. Indeed, the USD backfiring may have just started today, it could be a little up-and-down first, but if there are no new lows printing, and the reference 1.02 level in USD/CHF is not violated again, we could start talking of a real turn just around the corner.

I myself will keep long USD/CHF and short AUD/USD until they either stop or limit me, don't care much, but I could not leave myself (and only myself) without a position with my cycle readings and technical levels at so extreme values. I am one of those that like to commit till the last consequences to whatever I do, and following my own systems is part of that game, so will stick to that. I know for you it will sound like the same old story again, especially since you've been hearing it for about 2 weeks and nothing has really changed for the USD, who has been sold off aggressively. But you know, the more they sent it down on clear aberration, the more reasons gave me to stick to my systems. We'll see what happens next, but I'd suggest to have belief in those USD long triggers when they come from now on, and do not fear going long the greenback, especially vs the Pacifics. times have changed, now it may be our time to go and profit where others, who have enjoyed this downmove, will not. Best laugh is always the last laugh, there is room for that last laugh to be ours here. As I said, I'll try to follow developments and if possible keep you updated on my views, but I can tell yuo right now that they won't change for the next week, so...

Alright, my best wishes are sent to all for you who every day make this community grow bigger, I will keep in touch with you and will be with you very soon. I look forward to meeting you by then. All the best in your trading. Bye 4 now.

Intraday Fibos

Of the recent moves:

USD/CHF 1.0135-1.0284 swing: 23,6% 1.0249, 38.2% 1.0227, 50% 1.0210, 61.8% 1.0192, 76.4% 1.0170

EUR/USD 1.5460 - 1.5313 swing: 23,6% 1.5348, 38.2% 1.5370, 50% 1.5392, 61.8% 1.5402, 76.4% 1.5426

USD/JPY 101.42 - 103.25 swing: 23,6% 102.81, 38.2% 102.55, 50% 102.33, 61.8% 102.11, 76.4% 101.85

Another desperate attempt...that now seems to be a great move

Perhaps you did not notice it, but the Fed was said to be contacting other CB's to pump more liquidity to the system, a measure that was announced by a US Business TV just before the NFP release. Talking in hindsight (what analysts looove to do), some say that was the reason for the big USD sell-off and the gains in CHF and JPY (pure Bank-analysts bullshit), as the Fed was already anticipating bad employment figures. However, miracle of miracles, that same move is now to be said the one that caused the USD reversal (more bullshit), as speculators see the move as 'good'. Fine. I'd rather watch a comedy than reading or listening to these people...

Market wise, Cable doesn't seem to want (but it will ,unfortunately for Her) to break the dynamic momentum support line @ 2.0135, just a matter of time. The carry cows are back on track as USD/CHF and USD/JPY recover ground, just ahead of a likely reversal, but of course, you have no reason to trust me because I may sound like a  broken record on that topic now...

Extreme OB/OS levels at this hour

EUR/USD OS 1.5311, OB 1.5482            

USD/JPY  OS 101.26, OB 103.04      

GBP/USD OS 2.0049, OB 2.0250    

USD/CHF OS 1.0129, OB 1.0296         

AUD/USD (1hr) OS 0.9183, OB 0.9421       

EUR/JPY (15m) OS 156.20, OB 158.42            

GBP/JPY (15m) OS 204.09, OB 207.67   

***         

Technical comments: Good technical reaction off extreme USD_overbought levels vs CHF and EUR earlier on, the extremes have now just widened in the direction of the new moves, it is a good technical backfiring what we are seeing at the moment.

Daily wise, USD/JPY bounced off its extreme OS level and USD/CHF is back inside extremes, plus EUR/USD sold off big time (EUR/GBP weighing) from earlier trading out of bounds, which once more proves these levels very reliable even in the current madness. Keep an eye on today's candles at the close, this is getting interesting...

Reversal?

This may be it. The reaction off the extreme levels suggests the USD may be on its way to strong backfiring, so I will keep my long USD/CHF and short AUD/USD (entered @ the spike post NFP 0.9340 -suggested level-) for a while now. Watch out MACD in EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD (especially in the Euro case) and do not fear going against the 'current trend'. by the way, EUR/USD extreme OB level daily is working wonders, as the unit sells off to 1.5395; I wish USD/CHF's to do the same.